Mr. Clinton masterfully wooed those in the establishment who had gathered to hear him address the subject of Russia. He told them, "We need to respond forcefully to one of the greatest security challenges of our time, to help the people of the former Soviet bloc demilitarize their societies and build free political and economic institutions. We have a chance to engage the Russian people in the West for the first time in their history. We need a president who doesn't mind taking a little flak to seize this moment in history."

Would that it were so!

Since this vintage Clinton moment, we've come to know our prodigal president a lot better. Doublespeak is his trademark, often spinning hollow words tailored for an empty public. He may "feel your pain," but it takes a whole lot more than flair or a ubiquitous smile to influence the direction of history.

Unfortunately, the past has a way of returning unannounced, especially when no one's watching.

If the upcoming 1999 parliamentary elections in Russia were held today, the Communist Party -- which already dominates the lower house of the Duma, the Russian Parliament -- would win the vote, according to a recent poll by the National Public Opinion Center in Moscow. The liberal reform parties on which our national security dreams ride are too divided internally and too discredited by economic conditions to have much of a showing.

Whoever controls the Duma after the parliamentary election will have a tremendous advantage going into the all-important presidential election now set for mid-2000, provided Boris Yeltsin doesn't die or political turmoil doesn't engulf the nation first.

The intrigue over who will run Russia after Boris has begun. He periodically rises from his sickbed to fire more people in the Kremlin to remind everyone he's still in charge. His impotent actions assure no one. No matter who follows him, the outlook is grim. Any new government formed under present conditions will be unstable and far less friendly toward the United States. Goodbye "peace dividend."

After seven years in semi-exile, the communists and fascists (reds and browns) are out stirring up an angry, dispirited Russian public. They never left -- just wandered around in the political wilderness, waiting for the right moment to stage another "Red October" surprise.

Their playbill is to blame the nation's problems on Russian Jews who support the current government. Paint the liberals and democrats as "agents of American influence." Restore the national morale through building up the military and re-invoking the struggle with the West.

Four leaders of the democracy movement have been gunned down in recent years for resisting Stalinist advances. Democracy movement leader Galina Starovoytova was the latest to die. Sad to say, she won't be the last.

Only 6 percent of Russians believed the country was headed in "the right direction," even before the August 1998 economic crash. The average Russian is worse off today than he was under the Soviet regime. Freedom is hard to keep when you've "got nothing left to lose." The hard-liners are banking on growing chaos and hunger this winter to carry them back to the Kremlin.

Should these old-guard apparatchiks win, the consequences will be far-reaching. We can expect more of the following:

• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Russia is advancing the deadly arms race in South Asia and the Middle East, even as it receives billions in IMF bailout money.
  
• A new anti-American Cold War mentality fed by Russia's arms-for-cash program. Russia may be broke, but its global arms market is alive and well.
  
• More ethnic conflict.
  
• A resurgence of Russia's imperial reach for the border republics. Russia has fueled the forgotten civil wars in Central Asia and the Caucasus to further its influence over these regions. Belarus has just announced it's going to rejoin Russia.

What's shocking is that the Clinton Pentagon already has submitted to Congress a classified nine-step framework for reducing our strategic nuclear arsenal unilaterally, according to the New York Times. Presumably, the game plan is all about not wanting to provoke the Russians, and cutting military costs.

The sad thing is Mr. Clinton glimpsed the future, but lost it. Amidst all those coffees and other prurient goings-on at the White House, he forgot "to seize this moment in history." His real challenge was to fashion a new strategy for the post-Cold War era, one that would replace the policy of containment and further the democratic transformation of the former communist bloc. The task proved too big for our prodigal president.

Instead, Mr. Clinton warmed to the interests of the Red Guard in China, turned foreign policy over to deep-pocketed business interests, wrecked the military, and made us the world's policeman. His plan "to engage the Russian people" never went beyond appeasing Boris.

Now comes the correction!